Thursday, June 29, 2006
I can't wait for Germany vs. Argentina on Friday. The home team still has the greatest advantage in this tournament. I don't think anybody felt the Germans would be real contenders in the months leading up to the World Cup, especially when you look at some of their warmup matches (particularly the 4-1 drubbing by Italy in March). There was even some speculation that they'd lose to the U.S. in their friendly three weeks later (they didn't, romping over a team of American reserves, 4-1).
This is another team that's gotten better as the tournament has progressed. Their scorers -- Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski -- are pouring it on, and they've made defensive adjustments on the fly, which is why they haven't conceded a goal since their opener against Costa Rica.
On the other side you've got the tough Argentines, who have a fighting mentality you don't often see in South American countries. They know how to grind out, and after Brazil, they may have the strongest bench in the tournament. Not many teams can bring in guys like Carlos Tévez and Lionel Messi late in a game, players who can change the course of events. Still, I think you've got to favor the home team -- unless this match goes into overtime, where Argentina's depth could win out.
